Climate from The Center for Public Integrity

EPA proposes first limit on greenhouse gases

2012-03-27T16:03:36-04:00

In a rule that could discourage reliance on coal for energy, the Environmental Protection Agency on Tuesday proposed the first limits on greenhouse gas emissions from new power plants.

The proposal would “move our nation into an era of American energy that is cleaner and cheaper,” EPA administrator Lisa Jackson said in a conference call with reporters.

Opponents say the rule would make it almost impossible to build new coal-fired power plants and could cause some plants to close. “Unfortunately, the EPA continues to ignore the real impact their rules will have on American families and businesses by driving up energy prices and destroying jobs,” the American Coalition for Clean Coal Electricity said in a statement.

The rule is the result of a long process that wound through the U.S. Supreme Court. Five years ago, the court decreed that the EPA had authority to regulate greenhouse gases. Two years later, the agency formally found that emissions of such gases contributed to climate change and threatened public health.

Currently there are no national limits on greenhouse gas emissions, and the proposal would affect only new power plants, exempting those already in existence.

This January, the EPA for the first time released data on emissions of greenhouse gases at specific facilities. Power plants were by far the largest source.

Jackson said the proposal is in line with what the industry is already doing — shifting toward cheap natural gas being produced domestically. A boom has driven down natural gas prices, but Jackson said the agency had taken into account what might happen if those prices eventually rise. “The price of natural gas has to rise dramatically … for the economics of this rule — which are very, very good — to change,” she said.

The rule still must go through a public comment period and additional reviews. Jackson said she didn’t know when it would be finalized or whether it would be finished before the 2012 presidential election.

Hotter, drier, meaner: Trends point to a planet increasingly hostile to agriculture

2011-12-07T14:43:09-05:00

SAN FRANCISCO – To get a glimpse of the future, look to East Africa today.

The Horn of Africa is in the midst of its worst drought in 60 years: Crop failures have left up to 10 million at risk of famine; social order has broken down in Somalia, with thousands of refugees streaming into Kenya; British Aid alone is feeding 2.4 million people across the region.

That's a taste of what's to come, say scientists mapping the impact of a warming planet on agriculture and civilization.

"We think we're going to have continued dryness, at least for the next 10 or 15 years, over East Africa," said Chris Funk, a geographer at the U.S. Geological Survey and founding member of the Climate Hazard Group at the University of California, Santa Barbara.

Funk and other experts at the American Geophysical Union meeting in San Francisco cautioned that East Africa is just one example. Many recent events – discoveries from sediment cores of New York marshes, drought in Australia and the western United States, data from increasingly sophisticated computer models – lead to a conclusion that the weather driving many of the globe's great breadbaskets will become hotter, drier and more unpredictable.

Even the northeastern United States – a region normally omitted from any serious talk about domestic drought – is at risk, said Dorothy Peteet, a senior research scientist with NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies.

A series of sediment cores drilled from New York marshes confirm that mega droughts can grip the region: One spanned from 850 to 1350 A.D., Peteet said. And shorter, more intense droughts have driven sea water far up the Hudson River, past towns such as Poughkeepsie that depend on the river for drinking supplies.

"We're just beginning to map the extent, but we know it was pervasive," she said. "There are hints of drought all the way up to Maine."

Of course, climate change can't be blamed for all the food shortages and social unrest, several researchers cautioned. Landscape changes such as deforestation can trigger droughts, while policy choices exacerbate impacts.

Some hard-hit African countries have the highest population growth rates on the planet, and gains in agricultural productivity simply have not kept up with those extra mouths. Per capita cereal production, for instance, peaked worldwide in the mid-1980s, Funk said, and is decreasing everywhere. But no place on the globe is decreasing faster than East Africa.

Simple policy decisions can blunt a crisis. Malawi, in southeastern Africa, gave farmers bags of seed and fertilizer and saw food prices fall and the percentage of its population classified as undernourished drop by almost half over a decade, Funk added. Kenya, in contrast, saw its policies stagnate; prices and malnourishment rates both rose.

Meanwhile, researchers probing the climate in pre–Colombian Central America figure that widespread deforestation had a hand in the droughts thought to have toppled the Mayan, Toltec and Aztec civilizations.

More than 1,000 years ago, "significant deforestation" throughout Central America suppressed rainfall upwards of 20 percent and warmed the region 0.5ºC, said Benjamin Cook, a NASA climatologist.

The forest – and local moisture – rebounded with the population crash that followed European contact, he added. But today the region is even more denuded than during its pre-Colombian peak.

But with the frequency of droughts expected to triple in the next 100 years, researchers fear the resulting variability and stress to agriculture and civilization could prove destabilizing for many regions.

"We should take it seriously," Peteet said.

Douglas Fischer has spent 16 years covering subjects ranging from climate science to pesticides to energy development. Since 2008, he has served as editor of DailyClimate.org, which is a foundation-funded news service covering climate change.

Before Obama retreat on ozone, EPA chief fretted over likely illnesses and deaths

2012-01-09T18:01:39-05:00

When President Obama retreated from a tougher stance on smog last month, his Environmental Protection Agency chief had formally concluded that the existing standard endangered thousands of Americans, including children and people with respiratory ailments.

The Bush-era limit on ozone was “not adequate to protect public health,” and failed to take into account "newly available evidence," EPA administrator Lisa Jackson concluded, according to recently released documents detailing the agency’s justification for a tougher standard.

Jackson, whose son has severe asthma, has been a passionate advocate for a stricter rule. She grew convinced the agency could save thousands of lives each year if Washington imposed a 70 parts per billion limit on smog-causing ozone.

That standard was the least stringent and inexpensive option recommended by an independent EPA advisory panel of scientists.

Obama, under pressure from business groups and Republicans, abruptly shelved the planned rule on Sept. 2. He cited “the importance of reducing regulatory burdens” and relieving businesses of “needless uncertainty” in a struggling economy.

But Jackson said the more stringent requirement is “necessary to provide requisite protection for children and other ‘at risk’ populations against an array of [ozone]-related adverse health effects.”

Among those effects, she said: Decreased lung function and potentially life-threatening respiratory and cardiovascular ailments.

Jackson’s conclusions, contained in a 381-page document that would have accompanied publication of a new standard, differed sharply from the three-sentence statement the EPA Administrator issued when Obama reversed course.

The document, known as a preamble, eventually would have been published in the Federal Register, had the White House not stepped in. Now it might become fodder in the courts, as clean air groups challenge the administration’s about-face.

The groups – Earthjustice, the American Lung Association, Environmental Defense Fund, Appalachian Mountain Club and Natural Resources Defense Council – revived a 2008 lawsuit in federal court on Tuesday. That suit had challenged the Bush administration’s standard, now embraced by the Democratic White House.

The Clean Air Act requires the EPA administrator to set standards for pollutants that “cause or contribute to air pollution which may reasonably be anticipated to endanger public health or welfare.” The lawsuit by the environmental organizations claims the Bush administration’s 2008 standard does not allow “an adequate margin of safety,” as the act requires.

The legal challenge moves Jackson in a different role – from advocate of a more stringent standard, to defender of the limit she sought to toughen.

While ozone in the stratosphere protects humans from harmful ultraviolet radiation, at ground level it can worsen bronchitis, emphysema, and asthma. Because of ozone’s adverse impacts on plants and animals, the EPA limits it under the Clean Air Act. Ground-level ozone , commonly known as smog, is expensive to reduce because it comes from a wide variety of sources. Compounds in the emissions from power plants, factories, and automobiles react with sunlight to form ozone.

During the EPA’s deliberations, businesses, industry groups and some state environmental agencies questioned the scientific evidence for risks to people at the less-stringent 75 parts per billion limit set by the Bush administration.

But “the Administrator did not agree” with the business groups “that essentially no weight should be placed on any of the new evidence or assessments,” the preamble stated.

“Taken together, the overall evidence supports a causal relationship between acute ambient [ozone] exposures and increased respiratory morbidity outcomes resulting in increased emergency department visits and hospitalizations.”

Responding to industry’s criticism, Jackson countered that new evidence was simply too strong to ignore. “The Administrator recognizes these uncertainties and limitations but finds no basis to conclude that these uncertainties and limitations warrant completely discounting the newly available evidence from controlled human exposure and epidemiological studies.”

In the preamble, the EPA acknowledged the challenges of putting the tougher standard in place but stressed “the tremendous public health benefits this standard will yield.” That, together with “the requirements of the Clean Air Act itself – make this a challenge we must meet,” it stated.

The agency, in a cost-benefit analysis also released on Oct. 3, estimated that the tighter ozone standard would have cost $19 billion to $25 billion to implement – but would have been offset by financial benefits ranging from $11 billion to $31 billion.

Health benefits would have included 4,300 deaths avoided annually.

A leaked copy of the cost-benefit document was first published by the Center for Public Integrity’s iWatch News last month. A comparison of likely swing districts with areas that would have been affected by a tighter 70 parts per billion standard yielded little evidence that the new rule would impair businesses or the president’s reelection hopes, as the ozone rule’s opponents had suggested.

Leading up to the decision, Republicans and industry had been making dire warnings about the new ozone rule’s potential effects. In a meeting with White House Chief of Staff Bill Daley two weeks before Obama’s decision, industry groups brought maps showing which electorally significant states would be hit hardest by the various standards they thought the EPA was considering.

Republicans also loudly warned that the $90 billion price tag of the strictest standard scientists had recommended, 60 parts per billion, would cripple the ailing U.S. economy.

The White House reversal could hardly have been much more abrupt; within 20 days earlier this fall, the EPA went from saying it would “revisit the ozone standard, in compliance with the Clean Air Act” to deciding to implement the Bush-era standard.

In a terse statement at the time of its announcement, the EPA said it would continue an ongoing review of the health effects of ozone that is due to be completed in 2013.

Jackson had been an outspoken critic of the 75 parts per billion standard that she must now support. Shortly before submitting the tighter standard for interagency review in July, she said the Bush limit was “not legally defensible.”

In public statements since Obama reversed course on Jackson’s standard, the administrator has only said she “respected the decision.”

She has not responded to iWatch News requests to be interviewed on the subject.

In a 2009 speech to the Asthma Forum, Jackson said she addressed the group “as both the administrator of the EPA, and as a parent of a child with asthma.” She described the struggles of her son, Brian, then 12, and traveling with his nebulizer, masks and medications, and noted that “protecting children’s health was one of the top agenda items I laid out in my very first memo, which I sent to all EPA employees in order to establish the priorities of this administration.”

And Jackson mentioned smog. “In the years ahead,” she said, “as some communities see more high ozone days and other environmental triggers because of climate change, what steps can we take to mitigate these challenges?”