The National Rifle Association Institute for Legislative Action spent the most money pushing for Gillespie: $410,000, still less than a quarter as much as the Virginia Progress PAC, according to the Center for Responsive Politics.

Virginia “is a rich state for us in terms of members and supporters and donors and we felt that we could make an impact,” said Andrew Arulanandam, a spokesman for the NRA. “And we could make an impact in a race where there was a clear distinction between Gillespie and Warner. Gillespie would be someone who would support us through thick and thin and Warner … hadn’t.”

The NRA paid for an August mailing, and it also made phone calls on Gillespie’s behalf in October.

It’s clear that polls consistently showing Gillespie trailing well behind Warner. That and the possibility of the expense of playing in Virginia’s media market may have played a part in discouraging other outside groups and donors.

Warren Stephens, chairman and president of Little Rock, Arkansas-based Stephens Inc., also gave $25,000 to the We Can Do Better PAC. Stephens, a major political donor, gave more to other groups, including $2 million to American Crossroads, because Arkansas was one of Crossroads’ prime target states, he said.

“I donated to [We Can Do Better PAC] because I’ve known Ed Gillespie a long time and he’s a nice man,” Stephens said. “I think I’m probably like everyone else. I didn’t think he had a chance.”

Stephens said he doesn’t remember who approached him to contribute to the We Can Do Better PAC, but no other group brought up Virginia’s U.S. Senate race when soliciting him.

Stephens said he won’t second-guess why outside groups, including American Crossroads, didn’t put money into the Virginia Senate race.

Still, “when you have a good candidate maybe the lesson there is just go ahead and support him no matter what,” he said.

Steven Law, president of American Crossroads, was not available to be interviewed, a group spokesman said. Law personally contributed $1,000 to Gillespie’s campaign on Oct. 17, according to Federal Election Commission records.

In an e-mailed statement, the group said, “Republicans benefited from an unprecedented late-breaking wave and an abundance of top-flight candidates like Ed Gillespie. The Senate battleground was so broad this year that we would have had to shift resources from other close races to try to take advantage of any new opportunities in the campaign’s closing days.”

Gillespie’s campaign reported raising about $6.8 million and spending slightly less than $6 million through Oct. 15. Warner’s campaign reported raising nearly $16.4 million and spending $13.7 million, more than twice as much as Gillespie.

The Gillespie campaign was also out-advertised. Warner ran more than half the TV ads in the race, according to the Center for Public Integrity’s media analysis. Gillespie ran slightly more than a third. The data shows no outside group aired a TV ad in the race after Oct. 11.

It’s impossible to know whether more outside spending would have tipped the race Gillespie’s way, but it seems likely people will write bigger checks for him next time.

“What he told me…was, I’ve studied the race and it’s winnable and I’ve never studied a race harder. I’m sitting there going, ‘OK, sure, Ed, there’s no way you can win the race, but I know you, I’m behind you, we’ll do something,’” Stephens said. “Lo and behold, when Ed Gillespie tells me something going forward, you’d better believe I’m going to listen to him.”